Revealing Lotto Myth #5

The majority of people don't even know that Lotto trends exist. There are some that don't believe they exist at all. Therefore, using a computer for Lotto Number Analysis would appear to be a waste of time. After all, the Lotto is a random game of chance. Right? How could there possibly be any trends? Such skeptics would have a good point except for the fact that the trends are there for all to see. Well, at least those that are willing to look.

Lotto Whopper #5 - There are no such things as lottery trends.

Then, let's see what Lotto trends we can find.

Prospecting

Now, there are people who have a unique ability to look at a Lottery's winning number database and see Lotto number patterns and trends. They are few and far between and, I admit, I don't understand how they do it. Most people could look at the winning number database for weeks on end and the only thing they would hope to find would be some headache medicine.

If we are going to go prospecting for Lotto trends, we are going to need some supplies. Modern day prospecting is done with a computer and Lotto Software. Also, we need to know what a Lotto trend looks like. Otherwise, how would we recognize one if we found it?

A Picture Is Nice - But, a Graph Is Better.

Let's begin by making a graph. We'll use the Lotto Texas 6/54 Lotto as an example.

First, for every drawing in the Lottery's history, we'll randomly select 6 numbers and then compare them to the winning numbers to see how well we did. If two of our numbers were winners, we would plot a 2 on our graph for that drawing. If none of our numbers were winners, we would plot a 0, etc. When we were finished we would have a nice graph to look at for our effort. We'll call this graph our random selection graph.

Each point on the graph shows how we did in that drawing. But, we are more interested in how well we did overall? The easiest way to answer that is to average all the points on the graph. This would give us an Average Number of Hits per Drawing. We can use this as a reference point or figure of merit. By comparing various number selection techniques to this figure of merit, we can determine if a particular strategy did better or worse than random number selection.

What should this Average Hits per Drawing be? Selecting 6 numbers out of 54 means we're selecting 6/54 or 11% of the possible numbers. Therefore, we should expect, over time, we would average 11% x 6 correct picks per drawing or 0.67 Average Hits per Drawing. The Average Hits per Drawing calculated from our graph will be very, very close to this number.

Some of you are probably asking, 'What was this exercise all about?' The purpose was to find that very important number; 0.67 - the Average Hits per Drawing. Now, armed with this number, we can compare Lotto trends we discover to it to see if the trend is better or worse than random number selection. If we find a trend with an Average Hits per Drawing that is greater than 0.67, we're on to something.

Aha! A Trend.

So, do trends like this even exist? And, if they do, how good are they? The answer to the first question is, 'Yes; in every Lotto, every day.' The answer to the second question is, 'Much better than you might expect.' We're not talking about a paltry 1% or 2% improvement above random number selection. We're not talking 4% or 5%. We're not talking 8% or 9%. We're not talking 11% to 12%. Oh, no. We're talking 15% to 30% improvement, depending on the Lotto.

Excited yet? Let's look at 249 drawings of the Lotto Texas 6/54 Lotto from 4/26/06 to 9/10/08. Since we are looking for Lotto trends, we are looking for numbers that are resurfacing in some statistically significant way. In other words, somewhere in the Lottery's history are the numbers we should be play in the next drawing. But, where in the history should we look?

This is where a computer with great software is indispensible because it would be virtually impossible to uncover these trends by hand calculation. Well, not impossible, but the drawing is this Saturday. Even if you worked 24/7 for the next month without food or drink, when you finally complete the analysis, the train already left the station.

Cycles Will Bring You Around.

Cycle 20 has been the best performing trend in Texas. Cycle 20 identifies a place to look in the Lottery's history. That place is 20 drawings ago. By always going to that place to find 6 numbers to play, rather than randomly selecting them, you would have averaged 0.77 winning numbers per drawing instead of 0.67. That's an amazing 15.5% improvement; a more than obvious trend. It is also statistically relevant and cannot be ignored. Cycle 19 was a close second at 0.76.

But, wait. Suppose, without realizing that it was a poor choice, you always selected your numbers from four drawings ago; Cycle 4. Sadly, it has only produced an average of 0.56 winning numbers per drawing. Cycle 20 outperformed Cycle 4 by a whopping 37.5%! As you can clearly see, when playing the Lotto, making good decisions is very important.

Does this mean that Cycle 20 always produces winners? Of course not. What it does mean is, that over time, it has consistently been the best producer of winning numbers. Don't lose sight of the fact that in any other game of chance out there, a 15% to 37% advantage will bring a big smile to any gambler's face.

Now, I can already hear the skeptics out there, jumping up and down, saying, 'Ya but, that doesn't mean it will continue to be the best.' True, but these trends have what I call Persistence. They don't appear overnight nor do they disappear tomorrow. Cycle 20 is king in drawing 249 but it was also king 50 drawings ago (drawing 199). That means it has been the best choice for the last 50 drawings.

In the gambling world, the lottery poses the biggest challenge. As a Serious Lotto player, you need to capitalize on every advantage your Lotto has to offer. This article is just a simple example to quiet the naysayers, skeptics and critics who try to insist that Lotto trends don't exist and Lotto Number Analysis doesn't work. Bottom line, to join the ranks of the Serious Lotto Players, you're going to need some serious Lotto Software.