Casual Innovation: Predicting the Nintendo Wii Legacy in 25 Years

Imagine with me: The year is 2037. Electronic gaming persists as full-immersion experiences derived from personal devices that the upper class will incorporate into their very bodies, never requiring batteries or a recharge, while the rest will maintain a grip on their datapads. The games will be purchased and downloaded in instantaneous micro-transactions. The idea of “retro gaming” will be a near-laughable concept indicating any gaming system that uses a controller that is separate from the hardware, that antiquated “console.”

At that point, looking back, what will gamers think of the Nintendo Wii?

Before we even address the unit itself, let us even examine the idea of predicting a console's legacy so far ahead. The fun consideration, for me, is that I plan on still being alive at that time. In order to forecast what people will think of Nintendo's seventh-generation machine, we even have a case study to examine: A Nintendo home video game console that, in the current time, is over 25 years old in age.

The 8-bit Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) was released at a time of uncertainty for Nintendo. Shigeru Miyamoto, visionary in charge, essentially wanted to bring the arcade experience into the household to play such classic challenges as Donkey Kong. Players know the story: The American video game market was in a crash since 1983, largely due to the inundation of poor titles for the Atari 2600 console that saturated consumers, leading to a stark drop in demand. “Video game” became a dirty word; thus, Nintendo's decision to not only daringly call its gaming system an “Entertainment System,” but package it with items designed to seem like toys, such as a robot named R.O.B.

The result was an explosive success, reviving the industry and making Mario a household name. The legacy was that of equating the NES to an Ancient Hero, the memories steeped in legendary cartridges that still see play, and the ushering-in of the console wars, violence controversies, Sega's confrontational slogans, Sony's risky ploys, and the monumental entry of Microsoft. Discussing the NES today tends to bring tones of reverence, fond nostalgia, the citing of still-playable carts, and a few hipsters pointing out that the European computer gaming scene was doing just fine in the 1980's or that 8-bit gaming is over-regarded through the rose-color lenses of sentimentality.

20 years later...

The Nintendo Wii was released at a time of uncertainty for Nintendo. In the period around 2005, the first-person shooter genre was taking firm supremacy, online multiplayer was on the horizon as becoming the norm, and both Sony and Microsoft seemed possibly poised to make a firm move to drive Nintendo down on market share and doom its future business plans.

Nintendo already had a “kiddie” reputation on hand with its Gamecube; and, although it sported some impressive first-party titles along with third-party as well, even contending with the PS2 in graphical presentation at times, those “other two” companies were gunning for powerful third-party support and an appeal to those hardcore gamers – the core customers.

But Nintendo seemed to be showings its cards in quite a different tactical direction. At the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3) event of 2005, Nintendo unveiled its prototype console. Their president, Satoru Iwata, showed off a small, sleek, black little device. No controller or gameplay was shown yet, but Iwata made up for a lack of physical media with the presence of cryptic mentions: “You say you want a Revolution? Well, we've got one.” “The key here is not what you are playing, but how you will be playing.” “We will even draw non-gamers to our Revolution.” These were intriguing portents, to say the least.

At a show in Tokyo later that year, Iwata unleashed the bombshell revelation of motion gaming upon the world. The console was also going to be called the Wii now, rather than the Revolution. Gamers were abuzz with mass speculation and countless questions: Can you play a serious video game on this? What new possibilities will motion controls allow? Is Nintendo alienating the hardcore crowd? Is the presence of the Virtual Console library going to make up for a weaker online play and generation-behind visuals?

What will we think of the Wii in 25 years?

Nintendo met some serious contention throughout the lifetime of the Wii. Third-party developers were turned off by the need to incorporate “waggles” and turned to the PS3 and Xbox 360. The name “Wii” was mocked and derided, unable to ever truly be taken seriously. Graphical limitations became more and more glaring. The much-heralded motion controls were completely abandoned for some titles, or used to a minimal extent. The audio coming out of the controller was a joke, they said, and Nintendo only survives because of its first-party brand recognition and clout. Arguably, even the addition of MotionPlus was only well-utilized with Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword, and even then with complaints.

However, despite all the contentions, the Wii emerged a spectacular success in monetary terms. Reading the sales charts of top titles by historical consoles makes the Wii seem like an outright bully on the system playground. The original Xbox? Halo 2 the best-seller at 8 million, a few others that sold over 2 million, a handful of 1+ million-sellers. How about the Super Nintendo? Super Mario World shipped 20 million copies, while cartridges such as Super Mario Kart, Street Fighter II, and Star Fox sold over 4 million, along with a handful of others. That old Sony Playstation? Gran Turismo and Final Fantasy VII cracked 10 million copies, and the eighth best total, Crash Bandicoot, over 6 million.

Then the Wii, and some astounding figures by comparison: Two different Wii Fit games that moved over 20 million copies. Mario Kart Wii? Over 30 millions discs out there. Super Mario Galaxy cracked 10 million. Even Wii Party (who plays Wii Party?!) clocks in at over 7.5 million, a figure that approximates Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (N64), Grand Theft Auto III (PS2), Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360), or Super Smash Bros Melee (Gamecube).

And at the top of the heap is Wii Sports, with over 75 million copies sold or shipped (though mostly as a pack-in title, still far outclassing other contenders). This is a ridiculous, absurd, unfathomable, amazing, remarkable number. This makes Wii Sports one of the most recognizable video games ever, and in bridging the gap to grandma, provides a clue into the most telling focal point of the Wii's eventual legacy.

In an era where we debate the merits of DLC, the business model of selling $50 games for consoles when high-quality experiences are available for $1 on mobile devices, and the extent that old franchises can be milked or new flagships have any chance, gaming is evolving. This is undeniable. The conclusion is confident: Console gaming is on its way out.

Ultimately, when you honestly consider the matter, it is not difficult to see how the Nintendo Wii helped usher in whatever era is on its way next. Once grandpa swung that virtual bowling ball in Wii Sports, his idea of electronic gaming changed forever. Once the Wii caught on, even long-time gamers grew comfortable with the idea of always being consciously aware of a finger or an entire body during gameplay. Once the sales figures were released, there was room to declare the hardcore gamers to now be on the fringe of where gaming truly was.

In 25 years, I predict the legacy of the Nintendo Wii to be one of drastic dichotomy. The Wii was a boundary-stretcher, and by stretching boundaries, broke the barriers to open the floodgates of Angry Birds and Kickstarter and the mainstreamization of electronic games across all digitally competent human beings. Conversely, by choosing to emphasize accessibility over presentational depth, the Wii slowed the possibility of video games ever being perfected in a deep cinematic sense, and would disrupt the ability of console manufacturers to rely on the tried-and-proven plan of gradually advancing the art.

In a weird, crazy way, the original prototype title of the system, “Revolution,” may have proven to be a self-fulfilling prophecy after all – even if not in the way Nintendo intended. The NES saved the American video game industry, then the Wii was the first big nail in the console coffin. These are the bookends of Nintendo's significant gaming relevancy.