Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 Closes

As expected, Eclipse Award winner Uncle Mo ended up the favorite as pool 3 of the KDFW closed on Sunday. Dialed In took a lot of late action on the strength of his come-from-behind win in the Florida Derby. Before the race, he had been hovering around 10-1, but by the end of betting, enough money had poured in on him that he ended up at 5-1 odds.

5-1 on Dialed In might not be such a great bet – I can’t see him being too much lower on Derby day. Maybe he will be 4-1, as most of the money will be on Uncle Mo, and we are still a month away during which some unforeseen circumstance could occur.

Both Soldat and To Honor and Serve ticked up based on their poor showings in the Florida Derby. To Honor and Serve opened at 8-1 and floated all the way up to 15-1 by the close of the pool. Soldat, on the other hand, opened up at 15-1 and remained relatively steady, going up just a couple ticks to 17-1. This could be because Soldat ran a race so badly that perhaps it likely wasn’t a representative race for him, whereas To Honor and Serve, who finished a distant third, looked like he just tired in the stretch.

The mutual field opened at 4-1 on Friday but by the close of betting on Sunday, it had floated up to 8-1. Contrast this with the field at the close of pool 3 last year. In 2010, the field closed at 9-2 odds. The field might actually be a good bet at 8-1 this year because there are still several important prep races to be run, including the Arkansas Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Santa Anita Derby, and the Bluegrass Stakes – those are four big chances for an unknown or under the radar horse to emerge as a star. After all, Shackleford, who is part of the mutual field, came out of nowhere and hung tough with Dialed In in the Florida Derby.

Wagering was suspended on Comma to the Top following the trainer Peter Miller’s remarks that the Kentucky Derby was never in their plans as they feel the 1-¼ mile distance is just too far for him.

Premier Pegasus opened at 14-1 and closed at 9-1 as the fourth betting choice, and The Factor moved in the opposite direction, opening at 5-1 and closing at 10-1 as the fifth betting choice. The movement here is a little surprising considering neither raced last weekend.

Interest in future wager betting has cooled considerably since its peak in 2005, when a record $1,665,990 was bet on the three betting pools. This year, the total wagered was $1,132,055.

The 2011 Kentucky Derby will be run on May 7, 2011 at Churchill Downs.