Kentucky Derby Picture Blurs

The road to the Kentucky Derby has taken a few unexpected turns this weekend. What was once a relatively clear picture has now been thrown into disarray with Toby’s Corner’s upset of Uncle Mo in the $1 million Wood Memorial on Saturday at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The Santa Anita Derby too was not without its disappointments. Stirring things up on the west coast was the defection of Premier Pegasus from the Santa Anita Derby due to a hairline fracture and his subsequent removal from the Derby trail, and Jaycito, the likely second betting choice was also withdrawn though he will probably make a comeback in the G2 Lexington Stakes.

Both of the top two finishers in the Wood were coming into the race off 82 Beyer Speed Figures, and given that Uncle Mo finished a length behind the top two, it is reasonable to say that he probably will receive his second straight sub-90 Beyer. His three-year-old debut in the Timely Winter might be forgivable since the remarkably slow early pace surely impacted his ability to achieve a high speed figure, but in the Wood Memorial, he seemed to have no visible excuse. It will be very tough to win the Derby off two sub-90 Beyers.

He did have some trouble loading in the starting gate prior to the race, and trainer Todd Pletcher said that there was a quarter sized hole in his hoof that he had torn open from stepping on himself. Was that enough to justify such a poor showing? Jockey John Velasquez did say that he was not relaxed during the race as he normally is.

But some bloggers are already questioning whether his pedigree is catching up to him and like his sire Indian Charlie, he might not be ideally bred to go the 1-¼ mile Derby distance. Well, well, time will tell.

If Uncle Mo has indeed gone wrong, then that pretty much leaves us with The Factor who is running in the Arkansas Derby next week, and Dialed In, the winner of the Florida Derby, as the frontrunners. And we better start giving Soldat, who flopped in the Florida Derby, a second look. After all, he did run a great race in the 1-1/8 mile Fountain of Youth with a solid speed figure. I never thought he could match Uncle Mo, but the Wood Memorial goes to show that the Derby is up for grabs.

Surely they are going to be giving him a full battery of tests to see if there is anything amiss with him, and we will keep you informed of the latest updates on Uncle Mo.