The Upsets Continue – The Factor is Anything but in the Arkansas Derby

Okay, now I don’t know what to make of the Kentucky Derby picture this year. Each week, things just become more and more confusing as the never-ending stream of upsets continues. Last week, Uncle Mo disappointed in the Wood Memorial and this week we see The Factor bomb in the $1 Million Arkansas Derby. To top that off, over at Keeneland, long-shot Brilliant Speed rallied from last to first to upset the Blue Grass at 20-1.

The Factor proved to be a non-factor in the Arkansas Derby. Apparently his jockey Martin Garcia had early determined on having him sit back off the pace. It may have been a wise move, as the opening quarter was rather swift, being run in 22.54 seconds.

Down the backstretch, he shifted to the middle of the track, and as they approached the quarter pole, it was four horses in a line, J P’s Gusto, Dance City, Sway Away, and The Factor. As they turned into the stretch, it was clear The Factor just didn’t have it today eventually finishing seventh beaten 8 ½ lengths.

Sway Away assumed a narrow lead as they turned into the lane and looked like he had a great shot to win, but the distance apparently caught up with him and he relinquished the lead in mid-stretch.

Meanwhile, local fans had something to cheer about as 25-1 long shot Archarcharch was coming fast on the outside and made it to the wire first, as he held off Louisiana Derby runner up Nehro. The final time for the race was 149.34.

What makes the Arkansas Derby race so confusing is that horses that The Factor beat by 6-8 lengths in the Rebel, Archarcharch and Sway Away, this time finished 8½ and 5½ lengths ahead of him, respectively. Did they both improve or did The Factor just regress? I am inclined to think the latter.

Where does this leave The Factor? Knowing Bob Baffert, he is probably going to skip the Kentucky Derby after this poor showing, but then again, this year’s field seems so sub-par that anything might happen. After all, nobody expected Archarcharch to come roaring back after his decisive loss to The Factor in the Rebel, and trainer Bob Baffert said following the race that The Factor appeared to have displaced his palate, so maybe we can just toss this race.

Archarcharch earned $600,000 in graded earnings to gain his ticket into the starting gate for the Run for the Roses. The trifecta contained 10-1 Nehro in second and 30-1 Dance City in third which resulted in a humungous payout of $5,282.