The Most Likely Winner in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is Probably Not Your Best Betting Value

Uncle Mo may go postward as the favorite, but what we will see this year is similar to what we saw last year with Zenyatta. Both will be a side note, he doesn’t really provide any betting value. His proven talent will be a factor in determining his odds, but there is also the hype factor that surrounds any celebrated horse that pushes the odds down artificially just a bit. Zenyatta was a legitimate threat to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but arguably should not have been even money, while the eventual winner Blame went off at 5-1 and proved to be the real value of the race.
Whenever there is a significant amount of media hype surrounding a horse, additional dollars are always bet on the horse regardless of his ability. If he is the favorite, the betting public will make him a lower priced favorite. Uncle Mo is such a horse primarily because he was the focal point of the 2011 Kentucky Derby ever since he won the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile so impressively.
Horses that are on the Triple Crown trail tend to seep into the public’s consciousness more than other horses simply because the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes are the premier events of the year, and the ones that get all the national media coverage.
This causes a name brand recognition factor among certain horses, and Uncle Mo is certainly one of those types of horses.
Female horses also in general get more coverage than their abilities alone might merit simply because they are females. This of course only applies when their connections opt to try them against the boys. The press cannot resist a chance to promote a “battle of the sexes”, and tout “girl power”. In Europe, top quality female horses routinely face the males and a big deal is not made in their press over a girl mixing it up with the boys the way it is here in America.
So what do we get when we have the prospect of Uncle Mo vs. Havre de Grace in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? We get a double dose of this name brand recognition phenomenon which is sure to drive their respective odds down on Breeders’ Cup day. No doubt other accomplished and deserving horses will be forgotten, as these two are now the flavor of the month. Therefore, win bets on horses such as Flat Out, Tizway, and Game on Dude may prove to be very enticing at possibly better than fair odds, and bettors will ignore them at their own peril.