Betting the 2012 Kentucky Derby—Expect Big Payouts for North America’s Top Race

Each year, the Kentucky Derby provides one of the best betting opportunities in all of horse racing.
Consider these numbers: during the last five years, the average $2 win bet has returned $36.72 and the Exacta has paid an average of $560. The Trifecta, which requires a bettor to pick the first three finishers in exact order, has averaged $5,900.

Perhaps you looking for a life-changing score? The Superfecta will likely suffice. The average Superfecta payout, which requires a bettor to select the first four finishers in exact order, has been a whopping $103,139.00 during the last five years.

There are several reasons why correctly picking the order of finish in the Kentucky Derby pays so handsomely. Typically the Kentucky Derby has 20 runners, all of whom have had at least some level of success leading up to that first Saturday in May. Additionally, these young 3-year-olds are still in development and can show drastic improvement from week to week.

Perhaps the greatest reason for the high payouts in the Kentucky Derby is the distance of the race. At 1 1/4-miles, horses in the Kentucky Derby will be pushed to a distance they have never run. Some horses will find the 10 furlongs to be beyond their scope. Bettors are tasked with identifying which horses will be able to sustain their runs and which ones can't.

One final reason why Derby payouts have been so high in recent years is because of the changes in training methods that have occurred during the last decade or so. In what's become a bygone era, potential Kentucky Derby horses would typically start their career in the summer of their 2-year-old seasons and would make anywhere from 10 to 15 starts prior to running in the Kentucky Derby, if not more.

That allowed trainers to make sure their charges were Kentucky Derby material and would also give bettors ample opportunity to study a horse's running style and overall potential. However, in the modern game, horses will typically make half as many starts as their predecessors prior to the Kentucky Derby. That significantly narrows the window of opportunity for bettors to make a sound selection.

As an example, last year's Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, had never run on a traditional dirt track prior to the Derby. All of his prep races, which were good ones no doubt, had been run on either turf or synthetic surfaces. But with no dirt form to go on, bettors were left with little to analyze how Animal Kingdom would handle the Churchill Downs dirt track.

Obviously he loved it, as Animal Kingdom romped home an easy winner and paid his backers $43.80 for $2.

As this year's Kentucky Derby gets closer, we will provide numerous posts outlining different handicapping and betting strategies that will give you the best chance to make a killing during the Triple Crown.